Update on our active trades:

ALSI Long: After a fake breakout price retraced aggressively and we got stopped for a 1% loss @51610

EUR/USD long: We unfortunately got stopped for a 1.5% loss @1.1554 when price retraced to test support @1.15271. Funny enough it seems as though this was indeed just a retrace as price has since rebounded. I will reconsider a long position again if we can get a 4Hr close above the 200MA.

USD/CHF long: The position is still in profit and looking strong. I will look to move the stop loss to break even tomorrow if price has moved 50% to our profit level.

Trade 14: AUD/USD short @0.71753 with a stop-loss @0.71965 (Open)

After the breakout of the larger symmetrical triangle and the subsequent retest and rejection as highlighted on the 4Hr chart below I decided to enter a short position on making a new low.

I am actually risking 4% on this trade due to a change on the trading platform catching me off guard. This caused me to accidentally take double the exposure and consequently double the usual risk. Luckily the target is a proper 1000pips away @0.70751 giving me a very respectable R:R of 210:1000 or 1:4.7.

If this trade works out for us our account will be 12% into profit.

Update on our active trades:

GBP/USD short: This trade worked out exceptionally well with the take profit target @1.2940 being hit early this morning. Price actually continued to go down after our short target was hit all the way to support @1.2870.

ALSI long: The position is currently in profit but price is still consolidating and we would need to see a break to the upside if we want to see our target hit.

EUR/USD long: The position is currently out of profit by a small margin. Hopefully we will start seeing some price action tomorrow.

USD/CHF long: The position is currently in profit, but the bullish price action is much more subdued than what I expected. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Trade 13: EUR/USD long @1.1625 with a stop-loss @1.15554 (Open)

After a decent run on the EUR/USD the last couple of days we have seen a corrective wave developing over the past three days. I have identified 1.1625 as a major level of support and had a long buy order waiting at this level. This level was recently triggered with price unfortunately not quite finding it's feet yet. The 4Hr 200MA should also act as support and I have therefore decided to place my stop loss slightly below it @1.1554 risking 1.5%. I have not defined a target but are hoping for a continuation of the bullish trend up to around major resistance @1.8000

Trade 12: USD/CHF long @0.9676 with a stop-loss @0.9625 (Open)

Having kept an eye on this pair for quite some time expecting buyers to step in at some point between 0.9648 and 0.9700 I have decided to finally take the trade as we had a strong hourly reversal of 0.9652.

The primary reason why I have been watching this level is because it is evident from the daily chart that this level is the point from where the last rally took of. This means that all buyers who missed out on the first rally would look to get involved again at this level.

My target is about 230pts further up @0.9907 with my stop loss 50pts away @0.9625. This effectively gives me a risk reward of 1:4.6 making the 1% risk to capital well worth it.

Trade 11: ALSI long @52075 with a stop-loss @51610 (Open)

As mentioned in my market analysis this morning I expected the ALSI to pull back to 52388 and then possibly further to 51938. As it turns out we did get the pullback to 51938 and on the first sign of the bounce I decided to take the long trade looking for trend continuation. I have decided to risk only 1% as our win rate has taken some shots lately. This trade is presenting us with very good risk to reward.

Update: With the GBP/USD still ranging our long trade hasn't really moved much, although having caught the initial reversal well we are still in profit.

Unfortunately our EUR/USD long trade was stopped out yesterday for a 1% loss after price pulled back rather aggressively. I will look to re-enter the trade if price can manage to break free of this corrective move.

Trade 11: GBP/USD short @130.36 with a stop-loss @130.85 (Open)

So after the extreme exuberance in the market yesterday, I noticed that the GBP/USD has managed to go all the way up to resistance without any retest of the breakout. For this reason I decided to set my alarm for 02h00 in the morning and opened a sneaky short right at the top where I determined resistance to be.

As you can see from the below screenshot I managed to catch the short perfectly at the top.my initial risk for the trade was 1% but I moved the stop loss to break even this morning making it a zero risk trade from here on.

My target is the retest level of the breakout @1.2940

Concerning our EURUSD long trade, we are currently seeing price consolidating just above diagonal resistance.

Note that I have decided to move my daily market analysis to a new topic over here:

https://www.fxautomate.com/forum/live-trading/daily-market-analysis

I will thus only be posting new trades and trading updates in this thread going forward. This should keep things less cluttered.

Update on our three open trades:

We saw some crazy volatile price action the last couple of hours with our GBP/USD long trade hitting and then surpassing our target in a single candle. Unfortunately I wasn't in front of the charts to witness the price action and price ended up exceeding our target level by at least 100% meaning a lot of money was left on the table. This is were a trailing stop would have been very handy to keep us in the trade. Unfortunately the trading platform I am using to trade this portfolio doesn't appear to have the functionality.

At the other end of the spectrum we saw price action rapidly turning against our USD/JPY short trade and stopping us out at our stop loss level of 111.40. If we didn't have a stop loss in place the loss would have been twice as big by now. Risk on the trade was limited to only 1% so the pain was minimal.

Our EUR/USD long trade has fortunately also been benefiting from the recent price action and is once again in profit.

Update: So after the overall change in market direction we had another casualty last night. Our GBP/JPY long trade got stopped out at break even (142.88). And then to add injury to insult immediately reversed again:

Our USD/JPY short trade found some support shortly after we opened the position and went along to retest the 4Hr 200MA. So far it would appear that the 200MA is proving strong resistance, however a close above it could mean we will be stopped out.

Our EUR/USD long trade is still in profit after a mean reversal, but we still have both horizontal and diagonal support at the break even point. I have tightened the stop loss to 1.1614 meaning risk is only 1%

Our GBP/USD long trade is not looking too great with price breaking below the channel last night. Currently price is back at the bottom of the channel re-testing the breakout. If this retest succeeds and we see price staying below the channel, it might be an indication of some bearish continuation.

Market Update:

ALSI: We still haven't closed the gap from 30 January and I suspect this will be the final push towards the 54100 target level. After this I still think a healthy pullback to 5388 is plausible, but we will need price action to confirm the reversal if looking to catch the swing.

DOW: Starting to struggle making new highs with price starting to consolidate. It is possible that we might have a temporary top in place if we break below 26060, on the other hand a close above the previous swing high @26140 will be bullish. If we see a break to the downside we could see 25880 retested.

DAX: So far staying above the 4Hr 200MA with price consolidating. If we break above 12550 i think the 12700 level would be in reach.

FTSE: Currently hitting some resistance at the 4Hr 200MA and will likely pull back to 7620. If we can hold this level 7680 could be next.

Brent Crude: price tarded lower overnight with kijun-sen @ 75.88 being tested. If we hold above kijun-sen 78.15 is still in the sight. If we close below it however, we will likely see 75.50 retested.

USD/ZAR: It appears my fundamental view was correct and wee saw price re-test 14.40 as mentioned yesterday. This level is currently acting as resistance and a retest of 14.25 is possible. Overall my fundamental view remains bullish and 14.70 would not be an unlikely target.

AUD/USD: Resistance at the 4Hr 200MA proved too strong and we saw price reverting back into the symmetrical triangle. At this point we could see either 0.7293 or 0.7256 retested. If we can eventually get a close above the 4Hr 200MA, the bullish run up to 0.7440 would be on.

EUR/JPY: Currently retesting the breakout @129.70, if we can hold this level the march to 131 is back on the radar. If we lose support here, we will be re-testingh the 4Hr 200MA @129.

USD/CAD: As expected we saw price test the 1.2920 support level. As mentioned yesterday if we manage to bounce we could see 1.3037 re-tested. If support fails we will see 1.2825 tested which coincides with the Daily 200MA.

EUR/CHF: Turns out my rising wedge hypothesis was correct and price started breaking down towards support @1.1407. At this stage a retest of the wedge breakout @1.1420 is very likely. If the retest succeeds and we head lower support levels are 1.1385 and then 1.1355

USD/CHF: As expected we saw the Daily 200MA acting as support and providing a little bounce. I am not convinced however that this bounce will last and a close below the Daily 200MA would see price trading lower towards 0.9700 and 0.9650. I am still looking to get involved at these levels possibly scaling into a long position.

Update: So just as all our trades are moving along just lovely, Mr. market comes and messes everything up. Look at how close our GBP/USD trade came to it's take profit level (the red dashed line) before we suddenly started selling off... unfortunately the sudden turn in global markets is affecting all our open trades. Hopefully things settle back down soon.

Trade 10: USD/JPY long @111.05 with a stop-loss @111.40 (Open)

Based on the 4Hr tweezer top reversal and rejection of the 200MA, I have decided to re-enter our USD/JPY trade. Stop loss is just above the 4Hr 200MA and our target @110.60 which should act as a major level of resistance.

Since this is our second attempt at this trade I am only risking 1% (and effectively only 0.4% if we take into account we banked 0.6% on our first attempt). Risk:Reward equals 38:42 or 1:1.1

Midday Market Update:

ALSI: Bulls are still running strong and are now almost at the 54100 target level. I believe a healthy pullback to 5388 is still possible but will need price action to confirm the reversal if you are looking to catch the swing.

DOW: After another massive gap up at open the DOW has shown that there is no stopping it. With the pure exuberance I have seen so far I am very hesitant to say a pullback is around the corner and at this pace we are even likely to see new all time highs. However, the fact remains that there are major gaps down below and at some point they are going to be re-tested. So when this rocket starts to run out of fuel it's going to come down fast and hard.

DAX: So we did get our close above the 12430 level yesterday and are now above the 4Hr 200MA which could now act as support. We might see a small pullback to 12488 but I think that as long as we can stay above this level we will see more upside with initial targets being the 12700 level.

FTSE: Got the follow through I mentioned yesterday and we reached the 7620 level on open after a proper gap up. For now I think we met some resistance at this level and a gap close @7588 is very likely. After this we will probably see more upside with 7620 the first target.

Brent Crude: Saw a very brief pullback to tenkan-sen @75.59 after which it continued it's upward trajectory. At this point I think 78.15 is definitely on the table.

USD/ZAR: Still mostly ranging although in a slight down angle. From a fundamental perspective I do not see much downside and would expect to see price re-test 14.40 in the near term.

AUD/USD: So far it seems we have broken free of the symmetrical triangle, but we are seeing some resistance @0.7355 which also coincides with the 4Hr 200MA. If we can get a close above the 200MA, I think we will see a bullish run up to 0.7440. I would be watching this for a possible trade opportunity.

EUR/JPY: Got the Daily close above 128.50 and 131 is now in clear sight. This is also a very nice long opportunity with the 4Hr 200MA and 129 level acting as proper support.

USD/CAD: Lost hold of the 1.3037 support level and as expected price started falling through rapidly. We have some support coming up @1.2920 and we could possibly expect a bounce here. If we bounce we could see 1.3037 re-tested but it will probably now act as resistance.

EUR/CHF: Came very close to the 1.1460 target before pulling back. Price starting to consolidate into what looks like a rising wedge on the 4Hr, which could mean more downside is likely. First level of support remains @1.1407. If we close below this, we could see 1.1355 tested.

USD/CHF: Continues to fall with buyers reluctant to step in. We have now lost the 0.9790 level and currently trading just above the Daily 200MA which might also act as resistance. If it fails we have two more levels of support @ 0.9700 and 0.9650. I will definitely look to get involved at these levels possibly scaling into a long position.

Update on our open trades:

Starting with our USD/JPY trade, looking at the hourly chart below we can clearly see the well defined down channel I mentioned in my post from yesterday morning. Unfortunately price started to break through the upper boundary late yesterday afternoon and as mentioned I decided to tighten the stop loss to 111.24 to lock in some gains should price push higher. This means we eventually got stopped out for a very small profit of 0.6%.

Looking at our GBP/JPY trade, we can see that price is moving nicely along within it's up channel with the falling wedge on Monday really saving our bacon!

Onto our EUR/USD trade from yesterday, currently well into profit and with only about 40pts to go to our first target. So far it is smooth sailing.

Same goes for our GBP/USD trade with price moving along nicely and already half way to our target level.

Note: This post was meant to be published just before 15h00 yesterday but I never pressed publish.

With both of our open trades currently in profit I have decided to open another two trades.

Trade 8: GBP/USD long @1.2884 with a stop-loss @1.2834 (Open)

I am slightly late with this trade as the first 4Hr close above the bull flag was the correct entry. Nevertheless rather late than sorry. Target is overhead resistance @1.2933

Since I am also looking for a similar trade on the EUR/USD I have decided to only take half the risk @ 1%. risk:reward is 1:1 with 50pts either way.

Trade 9: EUR/USD long @1.663 with a stop-loss @1.1582 (Open)

With price having broken through the 4Hr 200MA and then successfully retesting the 200MA with bullish price action following makes for a convincing long setup. Especially considering we also have a potential inverted head and shoulder formation in place.

Having another similar trade open on the GBP/USD pair I have decided to limit risk to 1.5% with a risk:reward of 1:1 with the stop loss and target both 80pts away. The initial target is the first level of resistance @1.1743, but with the head and shoulders in play we will probably look to extend our target with 85pts to 1.1835 giving us a much better risk:reward of 1:2

Update on GBP/JPY trade: After a nice run into profit our trade ran out of steam and started falling sharply. We ended up breaking below the bottom support of the channel at which point price started consolidating into a falling wedge pattern. Learning from past mistakes I decided not to take the loss prematurely and am currently waiting for a bounce to break-even before making a final call as to keep the trade or close it.

Update on USD/JPY trade: As it turns out taking this trade as a hedge for the GBP/JPY trade was a great idea. As expected price started breaking lower soon after we entered the position. Price is currently trending down nicely within a well defined bear channel, currently looking to test the upper boundary. I will be closely monitoring price action as a close above the upper boundary could indicate further upside. Since we are well into profit I have decided to move the stop loss to break-even.

Monday Market Update:

ALSI: As things currently stand the 52388 level has now become support, and if we see a pullback this level will become the target for the re-test. Current target for longs is @54100 as this is the confluence area of both major horizontal and diagonal resistance.

DOW: I mentioned on Friday that should we have a bullish run the target would be 25845, and as it turns out we reached it on open after a massive gap up of 230pts. I am slightly skeptical that we can uphold this momentum and am expecting a pullback to at least 25600.

DAX: Briefly tested resistance @12488 followed by a strong pullback forming a bearish pinbar. Unless we close above 12430 on the 4Hr I think we will see support @12336 retested.

FTSE: We saw a bullish break out of the symmetrical triangle followed by a quick re-test. If we get follow through 7620 is definitely on the table unless we close below 7570 which will put the FTSE back into ranging mode.

Brent Crude: We saw Brent hit the @76.57 target level in record time and can now expect a pullback to 75.50. For now I will wait to see the outcome of the re-test as this will likely determine Brent's next course of action.

USD/ZAR: Still just ranging with resistance @14.40 and support @14.25. Waiting for a break to show direction.

EUR/USD: Saw the 1.1624 target hit, followed by a small pullback A daily close above 1.1624 could trigger a massive head and shoulders formation with a 200pt plus target. I will possibly look to get involved if we get a 4Hr close above the neckline.

GBP/USD: If we can get a 4Hr close above 1.2850, I will be looking for a long target of 1.2930. If we don't we will likely see some more consolidation above the 1.2800 level.

AUD/USD: Currently consolidating within what seems to be a symmetrical triangle around the 0.7239 level. If we get a close below 0.7239 the next target could be bottom of the triangle @0.7250

EUR/JPY: We got our expected pullback to 128.50 by close of Friday and are now back up against the 4Hr 200MA. I think that if we can get a Daily close above it we could likely still see 131 being reached this week. If not, support is @128.50.

USD/CAD: Also got our expected pullback and re-test of 1.3050 before the close on Friday. If we can get a 4Hr close above 1.3037 I think the 4Hr 200MA will see another test. If not we could be seeing a lot more downside.

EUR/CHF: Bullish price action continues with a bullish 4Hr close above 1.1400 possibly seeing 1.1460 as a target. If we see a close below this level we will probably continue to range.

USD/CHF: View remains unchanged from Friday as price continues to hover around the 0.9840 level with a close below 0.9830 opening up further downside to 0.9790. At this level I expect some buyers to step in as it's a major Daily level.

Trade 7: USD/JPY short @111.32 with a stop-loss @111.49 (Open)

So I went ahead and took the short looking for the pullback to support @110.94. Risk is limited to 1% with a Risk:Reward of 15pts:40pts or 1:2.6

I have decided to keep risk low and the stop tight as the trend is still up. Stop is placed just above the 4Hr top:

Looking at the 1Hr chart we can see price is technically still within a range, but looking at the last candle we can see that PA is looking slightly bearish. In hindsight we could have waited for the 1Hr candle to close below the range, but my decision was primarily based on the 4Hr chart, and seeing a good R:R opportunity I decided to take it.

Update: After a rocky start our GBP/JPY trade is currently well into profit. With some nice bullish price action currently visible. As long as we can hold above the 143 level (which should now act as support) we will likely see our target reached in due time. I have also decided to tighten the stop loss very slightly to 14.398. This reduces risk to around 1.6%

Going into the weekend:

ALSI: We saw a successful re-test and as expected reached the 52388 target. Having now breached the larger symmetrical triangle I believe a re-test of 52125 is likely. If this level holds even more upside can be expected.

DOW: Briefly lost support of the 25700 level yesterday coming to within 6pts of the 25600 support level mentioned yesterday. From here we saw a bounce up to the now level of resistance @25728. If we can get a strong Daily close above this level 25845 would be on the table for next week. If not we will see another test of 25600.

DAX: Still just ranging with resistance overhead @12488 and support @12336. Depending on which side we break will determine where we go next week.

FTSE: Still ranging but we are seeing some bullish momentum that might take us to the 7620 level. Depending on whether we have a strong close today will probably determine whether we will see that happen next week. Support sitting @7550.

Brent Crude: Saw the re-test of the 74.60 level and as expected support held up. We are now seeing price heading full-steam ahead towards the next level of resistance @76.57. Pity I didn't take this trade.

USD/ZAR: Still ranging with resistance @14.40 and support @14.25. Depending on where we close today will likely set the trend for next week.

EUR/USD: As expected we did indeed see a retest of the 1.1530 level with bullish price action following through. I would like to see a daily close above 1.158 which would take us to 1.1624. A daily close above that level would see me long next week.

GBP/USD: As expected we saw the retest @1.2830 with bullish price action following just like with the EUR/USD. If we can get a Daily close above 1.2850 I would be looking for a long target of 1.2960 next week.

AUD/USD: Lost support of the @0.7239 level yesterday followed by a sell-off and re-test of the level. We will need to see whether we can get a Daily close above this level or not. If the level holds we will see further downside probably testing new lows. If it give's way we and we get a Daily close above it we could see price recover towards 0.7317 next week.

USD/JPY: Like I said Yesterday, looks like nothing is stopping this pair. So obviously the re-test @110.60 was ignored. We have now hit major resistance and the 200MA on 4hr @111.40 with a pullback to at least 110.95 very likely. I am actually considering a short here as a hedge for our GBP/JPY trade.

EUR/JPY: Similar story to the USD/JPY with price being up against major resistance and teh 4Hr 200MA. Expecting a pullback to at least 128.50.

USD/CAD: We ended up seeing the bullish break above 1.3037 with a run all the way to the 4Hr 200MA @1.3100. This was followed up by quick pullback. For now I think a re-test to 1.3050 is likely with more bullish action following that.

EUR/CHF: So far support is holding above the crucial 1.1385 level but price is now consolidating into what looks like a symmetrical triangle. A Daily close above 1.1407 would be very bullish once again bringing into scope the 1.1460 target level. On the other hand a Daily close below 1.1385 would be bearish and bring 1.1355 into view.

USD/CHF: Still hovering around the 0.9840 level with a close below 0.9830 opening up further downside to 0.9790. At this level I expect some buyers to step in as it's a major Daily level.

Mistake tightening stop loss on EUR/CHF trade?

So it would appear that the breakout of the channel that stopped us out of the EUR/CHF trade was only a fake-out and price has re-entered the channel and is currently back at the level where we entered, meaning our trade would have been back at break even have I kept the original stop loss in place.

This does not yet mean our trade would have worked out but does show that it is probably wise to stick to your original stop loss levels. For now price is just ranging, but if we can get a 4Hr close above 1.1405 this would be bullish. If we close below the channel we will likely see a retest of the 1.1350 level.

Update: So our EUR/CHF trade also got stopped out as we continue to take a beating from Mr. Market.

Trade 6: GBP/JPY long @142.88 with a stop-loss @142.38 (Open)

Looking at the 4Hr below we can see there is what appears to be a double bottom in place, with some decent upside potential to the next area of resistance @144.00

Zooming in a bit closer we can see that the neckline seem to have been successfully retested with the long tails suggesting price is now finding support at this level.

Stop loss is just below the neckline and tails @142.38. Risk:Reward is 1:2.3

Update: Things did indeed start turning ugly for our FTSE trade but I decided to leave the stop loss as is. We ended up getting a smaller than expected gap down followed by some more bearish PA which soon stopped us out. Loss was contained at exactly 2%. Going forward it seems the FTSE has slightly recovered but is now starting to range sideways.

Our EUR/CHF trade is still holding onto dear life with yet another retest of bottom support during the night. At this stage we have not yet bounced and may be a sign that bullish momentum is failing. I have already tightened the stop-loss so will just have to see how this ends.

At this point it is easy to get discouraged at results seeing we have had 3 out of 4 losses so far with our open trade struggling to stay above water. However, if you have traded for any amount of years you would know that losing streaks are absolutely normal and to be expected. The important thing is to keep your head high, learn from your mistakes and keep up your trading disciplines sharp.

So what are the markets doing today:

ALSI: It would appear we have broken out of the smaller symmetrical triangle and have now come in for the re-test. If the retest hold we should have 52388 on the table. If the re-test fails we should see the 51300 level retested.

DOW: Struggling with what seems to be a potential double top in place, but too early to tell. Price is currently testing major support @25700 . I this level breaks we will see price move lower towards the 25600 level. If it holds we will bounce to around 25800, where it would once again be decision time as we will then have a flat top triangle in place.

DAX: Is ranging now, resistance still up above @12488. For now we watch.

Brent Crude has had an exceptional bullish run and are now headed for a re-test of the 74.60 level. My view is that it will likely hold but I suppose we will just have to wait and see.

USD/ZAR after a brief sell-off last night the pair has recovered most of the losses and is once again back in the cloud.

EUR/USD: Met resistance at the 4Hr 200MA and saw a pullback to below tenkan-sen. I tink we will likely retest the 1.1530 level at which point we will likely see trend continuation. I would be watching for long opportunities.

GBP/USD: Also saw a pullback to below tenkan-sen with a possible retest @1.2830 on the table here. Will also be looking at possible trend continuation.

AUD/USD: We had a massive gap down last night followed by a large bearish candle on the 4Hr that closed right on major support @0.7239. If this level hold we might see a bounce abck to the 200MA on 4Hr.

USD/JPY: Looks like there is no stopping this pair, although a re-test of the wedge breakout @110.60 is possible.

GBP/JPY: Currently consolidating, will wait to see which way we break.

USD/CAD: We saw a fake break below diagonal support followed by a gap up and large bullish candle on 4Hr. I would like to see a bullish break above the 1.3037 for more upside. If we cannot break through this level view would be bearish.

USD/CHF: Saw some buying activity but definitely need more convincing as the trend is still down.