I have decided to move my daily market analysis here.
Wednesday 23 January 2019:
Notice: Happy new year everyone! To think this is my first post of 2019. What a crazy couple of months it has been. As previously mentioned I started a new venture around September last year and as is the nature of any new business it soon started to consume most of my time. But hopefully now that things are more established I can slowly start giving some time to my market analysis.
In browsing the markets today I found a potentially excellent setup for Brent Crude on Daily:
Looking at the long term picture on weekly we can see that the major level we are currently testing was first tested in the last week of February 2015 where it became resistance and three years later became major support in the first week of February 2018. Interestingly enough as we are once again approaching February it looks like the level might well be turned back into resistance again.
Looking at the daily (below), we can see that we saw a strong pullback from the last down trend but quickly heading into overhead resistance as confirmed by the thick red Ichimoku cloud. Our Ehlers strategy is also starting to line up for a short with the Inverse Fisher Transform turning red and the IFT of RSI going green. Now all we need for confirmation is the Elder bands to turn orange.
Thursday 6 September:
Notice: I have recently started a new venture and will thus for the next month or two be focusing my attention there. This is therefore for the time being my last daily market update and I will going forward only do a weekly market update.
My analysis that we will hit 6500 should we break below the bottom of the rising channel has indeed played out, and at this stage I think a further sell-off to 6140 is also still possible. if we break below this small consolidation we are currently seeing @6500.
After breaking out of the symmetrical triangle we briefly came to within $11 of the 200 target level. I suspect that we will still see the 200 level tested within the next couple of days.
ALSI: Neither the Daily nor the 4Hr 200MA's was able to keep price from heading even lower. At this stage I strongly suspect that we will see the 50141 level tested. This level acts as both major horizontal as well as diagonal support and we will likely see price bounce back to the 51267 level from there.
DOW: Continues to consolidate with support @52880 still holding strong. We briefly saw a 4Hr retest of resistance @26063 but price quickly got rejected. Keep an eye on these levels as a 4Hr close above or below these levels will likely set the tone for the next impulse wave.
DAX: Confidently broke below the Daily Flat Triangle with the next level of support @11895 now likely to be tested. We will then likely see a retest of the 12100 breakout level. If we do continue lower we could even test support all the way down @11414 which coincides with the Daily 200MA. If this level eventually fails which is unlikely without a decent bounce a much larger Weekly head and shoulders pattern could come into play with a massive long term target of 10250.
FTSE: After rejection of the daily 200MA we saw support @7347 tested followed by support @7310 tested. There is a chance we go slightly lower to 7279 but a bounce to 7518 is then definitely not unlikely.
Brent Crude: Broke straight through support @76.57 and we saw price heading all the way to my lower price projection @75.46. The 77 level now becomes resistance and a move lower towards 75.46 is now a distinct possibility.
USD/ZAR: We saw price hit diagonal resistance @15.71 and quickly pull back. I still have a full price target of at least 17 but a pull back to support @15 is very likely.
EUR/USD: Price broke back above the 4Hr 200MA with the 1.16239 level no starting to look like support. If we can stay above this level we could see a recovery to 1.17324 but if not we will likely see 1.15271 tested.
GBP/USD: Currently trading at the very critical level of 1.29320 which coincides with the 4Hr 200MA. If we can get a 4Hr close above it we could see the overall trend continuing higher, but if not we could see price looking for support @1.28628 and even 1.27966.
AUD/USD: Looking at the 1Hr chart I can see that price is currently ranging in the upper half of the range between 0.72105 and 0.71720. There is currently minor support @0.71875 and we would ideally want to see price stay above this level if we want to see a break higher as a break below this level would see price test the lower level of support @0.71720.
USD/JPY: Did not manage to stay above 111.47 and we did see support @110.92 retested. We now have a massive break of diagonal support as well which could mean that we will see even lower levels such as 110.415.
GBP/JPY: Saw the recovery to resistance @143.67 and then even higher to 143.96. We are now possibly heading back to support @142.79 meaning we now have a well defined range to keep an eye on.
EUR/JPY: Still holding above the 4hr 200MA with the 130.18 target not yet reached. It is important that the 128.46 support level holds as a close below it could see price head much lower.
USD/CAD: As expected the 1.310 retest is currently underway but not without first spiking higher in typical market manipulating fashion. There is a good chance the retest will hold but it would eb best to wait and see. This is a potentially massive daily bull flag break with a very large target of no less than @1.33750
EUR/CHF: Just cannot seem to catch a break with sellers stepping in and driving price lower. To be honest I cannot even see how far down support is at this stage. So either we bounce here @1.2238 or we plunge into the abyss. Target remain 1.14510
USD/CHF: Same as above with sellers again stepping in and driving price lower to absolute rock bottom. Either we plunge lower to who knows where or we bounce and start climbing back out of this pit. The near term target is 0.9807 with the larger target @0.9905.
We have a confirmed break of the symmetrical triangle I have been monitoring with support all the way down @200 now likely to be tested.
Testing channel lows with a break targeting support @6500
Wednesday 5 September Market Update:
ALSI: Crashed through multiple levels of support all the way to the support @50818. So far it look like we are finding some support @ the Daily 200EMA and 4Hr 200SMA. I think this is a good place for a bounce to test resistance @51930
DOW: Starting to look like we are losing support @52880 and unless we see a 4Hr close above it a retest of support @25600 is going to be next. There is still a chance we bounce here but the next 4Hr candle will give us a better picture.
DAX: As I mentioned Yesterday we saw price coming to retest support @12097 which is also the bottom of a Daily Flat Triangle. Judging from the bullish divergence I think there is a good chance that we will see a false break. But even if we do break lower we will definitely see a retest at some stage.
FTSE: Lost the Daily 200MA with support only waiting @7347. There is bullish divergence present meaning a bounce to 7518 is not impossible.
Brent Crude: As expected the rally didn't last forever and we finally saw the pullback I have been expecting. At this stage a retest of 76.57 is very likely. There is a good chance we bounce on this level, but a break could open up further downside to 75.46.
USD/ZAR: So far heading full steam towards the 17.70 price target with support now @14.74.
EUR/USD: Still trading below the 4Hr 200MA with support @1.1570 just holding. If we can break abovethe 4Hr 200MA we could see price recovering higher. If however we end up losing support we could see 1.1530 next. This is a major level of support and I would expect a bounce here.
GBP/USD: Currently trading just below support @1.2800 but I still think we could see a bounce here with a possible target of 1.2900 which will serve as a retest of the larger channel break.
AUD/USD: Saw a big false move to the upside followed by price making new lows as it heads toward support @0.7011. Resistance is @0.71720 with a 4Hr close above it being bullish and possibly invalidating the short move.
USD/JPY: Looking strong with a 4Hr break above resistance @111.47. If we can get a close above 111.85 this will open up massive upside potential. It is important though that we stay above 111.47 as a close below will see 110.92 retested.
GBP/JPY: Found some support @142.80 with a recovery to resistance @143.67 possible. If we close lower we could see 142.28 retested.
EUR/JPY: Still ranging above support on the 4hr 200MA with a break above 129.50 opening up 130.18. Support currently @128.46
USD/CAD: Saw price hit the 1.315 target with either a retest of 1.310 likely to follow.
EUR/CHF: Looks like we have finally started forming a possible bottom with support @1.1244. I would like to first see a 4Hr close above 1.1295 before I will consider a long position possibly targeting 1.145.
USD/CHF: So far the new bullish trend is looking healthy with price currently in a corrective move after hitting the 1Hr 200MA. The near term target is 0.9807 with the larger target @0.9905. Support is currently @0.97144.
Tuesday 4 September Market Update:
ALSI: We saw a brief fake-out through resistance @52388 with a violent pullback to support @51938. As this stage we are back into the consolidation range. We have the 1Hr 200MA helping to act as support but without a break above 52388 we will either continue to consolidate or break lower towards support @51683.
DOW: Still consolidating with a retest of ATH @26700 definitely still possible IF we can break above the last swing high @26140. If we get a close below 52880 we will likely test support @25600 again.
DAX: At this stage it doesn't look like we are going to see that 4Hr 200MA retest, we are currently in the process of losing support @12270 meaning we are likely heading to support @12097 which is also the bottom of a Daily Flat Triangle.
FTSE: Still hugging the Daily 200MA with the 7518 levels tarting to act like resistance. This could mean that we will see more downside after some consolidation, possibly as low as 7347. If we do however get a 4Hr close above this level there will be a stronger case for further upside.
Brent Crude: Again nothing is stopping the oil train with price breaking through resistance and heading to the next level of resistance @79.54. It is very unlikely not to see some sort of pullback to test the breakout levels with the pullback levels currently sitting @78.15 and @76.57.
USD/ZAR: My analysis remains the same as Yesterday with the next likely target being 17.70. There is a good chance we might pause a while at 15.40 to consolidate or even come back for a retest of 14.74. Overall the fundamental view remains bullish.
EUR/USD: Ended up breaking below the 4Hr 200MA and we are currently seeing 1.1570 tested. If this level fails 1.1530 is next. This is a major level of support and I would expect a bounce here.
GBP/USD: Price continued to head lower all the way to my lowest support projection @1.2825. I suspect a pullback to occur around 1.2800 with a possible target of 1.2900 serving as a retest of the larger channel break.
AUD/USD: It is starting to look like we are losing support @0.7185 and if this level goes it would not be strange to see 0.7011 as this is the full target of the triangle break and also the next major level of support.
USD/JPY: Support @111.00 still holding. Like I mentioned Yesterday; as long as this level remain in tact there is more upside if not we could see 110.60 next.
GBP/JPY: Lost support @143.25 and we are now likely to retest support @142.50. If we can gert back above 143.25 we could see 144 tested, but this is unlikely at this stage.
EUR/JPY: Still consolidating below 129.15 resistance with a break above opening up 131. Support is currently @128.50.
USD/CAD: We got our bullish 4Hr close above 1.306 bringing our 1.315 target into view. The breakout level @1.3116 is likely to be retested and if it were to fail and we get a close below it we could see rice heading to support @1.292. I am currently looking for a long opportunity here.
EUR/CHF: Looks like we have finally started forming a possible bottom with support @1.1244. I would like to first see a 4Hr close above 1.1285 before I will consider a long position.
USD/CHF: We saw a strong 4Hr break to the upside giving even more weight to the fact that buyers are interested at this level. I foresee a near term target of 0.98075 with even more upside possible with some consolidation. Support is currently the breakout level @0.9700 which we might see retested.
Update on BTC:
As we cans see from the 4Hr chart below bitcoin has managed to take out resistance @7130 with the next level of resistance coming up @7500. This level also coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and would thus be a major psychological level. I suspect that once we hit this level we will likely see a pullback to retest the breakout from 7130. If this retest then holds we could see price take another go @7500 with a break targeting 7700. Obviously if were to get a break below the blue diagonal channel this would be very bearish.
Update on ETH:
After a brief test of resistance at 300 ETH as decided to head back into it's symmetrical triangle. If we head lower we will see support @275 tested with 300 being the level to break if we want to see higher targets like 320.
Monday 3 September Market Update:
ALSI: As mentioned on Friday, there was a possibility that price would test the lower support @51938. So far price has done just that and we are currently consolidating between this level of support and resistance @52388. If we can break above resistance we could see 5390. If we do break lower we could see 51683 tested but this level should hold.
DOW: As expected we saw support @25880 retested with a nice little bounce showing us there is possibly still fuel for another leg up. The way things currently look we could possibly retest ATH @26700 if we break above the last swing high @26140.
DAX: Still mostly ranging. There is a chance we bounce to the 4Hr 200MA but for a bullish move we really need a break above 12570. Support is currently @12270.
FTSE: Is currently hugging the Daily 200MA, but still trading slightly below it. I would like to see a decent 4Hr close above 7500 if we want to see 7588 retested. For now the trend remains down and if we would see rejection from the 7518 level this would mean we could see a lot more downside.
Brent Crude: Still holding it's level with price consolidating just below resistance. I am still looking for a possible short opportunity to support @76.57.
USD/ZAR: We managed to break through resistance @14.74 and at this stage 17.70 is now a likely target. There is a good chance we might pause a while at 15.40 and then come back for a retest of 14.74. Overall the fundamental view here remains bullish.
EUR/USD: Still ranging just above the 4Hr 200MA. I remain bullish on this pair and would like to see 1.1700 in the near future, If we break below the 200MA we could see 1.1570 tested.
GBP/USD: We got our retest of 1.2938 with price slipping even lower only to feet it's feet @1.2868. My expectation is that we bounce from here, but I won't rule out further downside. Next levels of support are 1.2850 and 1.2825
AUD/USD: Looking weak with 0.7255 support being lost. Price is currently trading below tenkan-sen on 4Hr meaning we could see more downside. Support is holding @0.7185 but if this goes we could easily see price go another 170pips down as per the symmetrical triangle breakout target.
USD/JPY: Support @111.00 still holding. Like I mentioned on Friday; as long as this level remain in tact there is more upside if not we could see 110.60 next.
GBP/JPY: Lost the 4Hr 200MA and currently trading near support @143.25. It looks like we will bounce here with the Ichimoku cloud on 4Hr offering some additional support.
EUR/JPY: Finally got the long awaited pullback to 129 and if we can get a 4Hr close above 129.15 I think we will likely see 131 again.
USD/CAD: Price hit major resistance @1.306 with a confluence of diagonal, horizontal as well as the 4Hr 200MA acting as resistance. If we break above this with a strong 4hr close it will be very bullish with a target of 1.315. If however we see rejection at this level (which is more likely considering the trend is down) we could head lower towards support @1.292. I will be watching for an opportunity here as both directions are offering some serious pips.
USD/CHF: My long order @0.9650 finally got triggered with a nice pinbar reversal giving us some indication that buyers are beginning to step in. As long as we can stay above 0.9650 I remain bullish.
Friday 31 August Market Update:
ALSI: As thought the ALSI came down hard and fast to retest the 52388 level in spectacular fashion. It would not be strange to see a bounce off support today but there is always the chance that we see price first pull back little lower towards support @51938. If we end up bouncing we could see 5390 again soon.
DOW: Finally saw a break below 26060 with price currently heading towards that 25880 support level. This is probably just a corrective move and the overall trend is still up meaning continuation is definitely still possible.
DAX: Support on the Ichimoku cloud held well and we saw price quickly bounce of the 12425 level. After another brief retest of the 4Hr 200MA price again failed to break through. We are currently trading below kijun-sen on the 4hr which is definitely not bullish. It is likely that we will continue to range between support @12425 and resistance @12570 for a while.
FTSE: After another go at the Daily 200MA price again got rejected printing a large 4Hr pinbar in the process. For now it seems we are bouncing but the trend is still seriously bearish at this stage with shorts definitely being favored. Resistance is currently at the 7557 level.
Brent Crude: Finally hit the 78.15 target. If ever there was a good time for a pullback this would be it.
I will be looking for a possible short opportunity to support @76.57
USD/ZAR: I noticed I made a typo yesterday stating a target of 17.74 while I actually meant 14.74. And as it turns out my prediction on the USD/ZAR has been rather accurate lately with the target being hit yesterday. As we are still ranging we could very possibly head back to support @14.42 and then back to resistance @14.74
EUR/USD: Broke below support @1.1685 yesterday and came in to retest the larger daily diagonal. We are currently trending slightly down in what could be a possible bull flag, but we would need a close above the hourly diagonal to confirm a breakout. Support is currently @1.1625 with the 1Hr 200MA backing it up.
GBP/USD: Still waiting for the diagonal breakout @1.2938 to be tested, but for now price is just ranging. I suspect a break below 1.3000 will give us our retest while a close above 1.3045 will be very bullish.
AUD/USD: As mentioned yesterday we saw price remain inside the symmetrical triangle and trading lower to retest support @0.7256. Interestingly we saw the last 4Hr candle close below the triangle and support which could indicate a lot more downside if we do not manage to get a close above support soon.
USD/JPY: Unable to hold onto the 111.50 level we saw price retesting support @111.15 as expected. Price appears to have found some support @111.00 for the time being. As long as this level reamain in tact there is more upside if not we could see 110.60 next.
GBP/JPY: We got our retest of 144.25 with price appearing to bounce of the 4hr 200MA here. If we can hold above it, we will likely see the swing high @145.70 again soon.
EUR/JPY: We ended up getting a close below 130.20 meaning the pullback to 129 is now likely.
USD/CAD: Having bounced of support @1.2920 price is now fast approaching resistance @1.303. We would have to see what happens at this level to better understand where price is likely to head next.
EUR/CHF: Managed to force it's way even lower with price currently at support @1.1300. We either bounce here or go for new lows. I am still in favor of a strong correction here.
USD/CHF: Moving closer and closer to my long stop order @ 0.9650 as this level is sure to attract buyers. This level also coincides with major support.
As a bonus I have decided to also do a bi-weekly analysis of BTC and ETH:
Note that I am using a LOG chart for my concurrency analysis.
Looking at BTC it is immediately apparent to me that the low we saw on 14 August was the head and shoulders pattern playing out to it's full target. At this stage we are looking at an expected recovery and currently trading just below the Fibonacci 50% entrancement level which also coincides with some major resistance.
Looking forward I think the levels to consider here are 6800 as support and 7130 as resistance. If we manage to close above 7130 we will likely see the 61.8% Fibonacci level tested at 7500. I would expect this level to hold as it would also coincide with strong horizontal as well as diagonal support. If for some reason we get a close below the rising channel and 6800 support, we will more than likely see price head towards support at 6500.