I have decided to move my daily market analysis here.
Thursday 30 August Midday Market Update:
ALSI: Has started to began what looks like it's decent to retest 52388. The trend is still very much bullish meaning a counter trend trade is not advised.
DOW: Still ranging between 26140 and 26060. If we see a break to the downside we could see 25880 retested. Again this would be counter trend and not recommended.
DAX: Lost the 4Hr 200MA support level but found some support on the Ichimoku cloud around 12425. If we can stay above this level I think we will see the 4Hr 200MA retested.
FTSE: Resistance at the 4Hr 200MA proved formidable and we got our pull back to 7620 and then saw price fall much lower to support at 7500 which coincides with the Daily 200MA. While this is very mush bearish I suspect the Daily 200MA to hold for the time being and would expect to see price likely ranging here for a while with the 4Hr 200MA remaining as resistance.
Brent Crude: Not wavering from it's incredible trajectory, the target at 78.15 is still in sight. Support currently @76.57
USD/ZAR: My primarily fundamental view has proven reliable so far and we saw price came to within 4c of my 4.70 target. At this stage I am suspecting we will likely see 17.74 with support moving to 14.42
EUR/USD: Currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle with support @1.1685 and resistance @1.1710. A close above or below these levels will prepare the way for this pairs next move. Overall I remain bullish.
GBP/USD: Saw a strong bullish run up to Resistance @1.3045 followed by a brief pullback. I suspect we will see the diagonal breakout @1.2938 retested after which price will continue upwards.
AUD/USD: Price is comfortably remaining inside the symmetrical triangle. My view from yesterday remains unchanged with 0.7293 having been retested, 0.7256 is now the next level of support. If we can eventually get a close above the 4Hr 200MA, the bullish run up to 0.7440 would be on.
USD/JPY: After the prominent break of the 111.50 level price has now came back to retest this breakout. I suspect we will be able to hold this level and see price heading towards 112.15. If we do not hold the level we could see price moving lower towards support @111.15.
GBP/JPY: After an absolutely massive 4Hr candle yesterday busting through multiple levels of resistance we saw price briefly coming back to retest the 145 level. So far this level is holding but a retest of 144.25 is definitely not unlikely here.
EUR/JPY: Still haven't managed to tag the 131 level quite yet with price pulling back slightly. I still think 131 is on the table. A close above it would spell more upside while a close below 130.20 could mean a deeper pullback to 129 is likely.
USD/CAD: Still ranging on and around the 1.2920 support level. As mentioned yesterday if we manage to bounce we could see 1.3037 re-tested. If support fails we will see 1.2825 tested which coincides with the Daily 200MA.
EUR/CHF: Saw price heading lower all the way to support @1.1355. This level coincides with the rising wedge breakout target as well as major resistance. I would be really surprised if we do not bounce to at least 1.1385 here. Good R:R swing trade opportunity here if you use 1.1320 as your stop loss and 1.1385 as your target.
USD/CHF: As expected the bounce didn't last and we saw price heading even lower. I have even placed a long stop order @ 0.9650 as this level is sure to attract buyers.
As a bonus I have decided to also do a bi-weekly analysis of BTC and ETH:
Note that I am using a LOG chart for my concurrency analysis.
Looking at BTC it is immediately apparent to me that the low we saw on 14 August was the head and shoulders pattern playing out to it's full target. At this stage we are looking at an expected recovery and currently trading just below the Fibonacci 50% entrancement level which also coincides with some major resistance.
Looking forward I think the levels to consider here are 6800 as support and 7130 as resistance. If we manage to close above 7130 we will likely see the 61.8% Fibonacci level tested at 7500. I would expect this level to hold as it would also coincide with strong horizontal as well as diagonal support. If for some reason we get a close below the rising channel and 6800 support, we will more than likely see price head towards support at 6500.
Looking at ETH we can see that we are currently trading within a symmetrical triangle and just above support at 275. I suspect that if we can get a 4Hr or preferably daily close above 300 we will see 350 tested. There are both diagonal as well as horizontal resistance lurking at 320 so we might pause see some consolidation art this level first. On the flip side if we were to get a daily close below 275, price could be heading even lower.